US expert says N. Korea might ignore Trump if he returns to White House
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump in Singapore, June 12, 2018. Reuters-Yonhap
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may not be "eager" to engage with former U.S. President Donald Trump if the latter wins the White House in the Nov. 5 election, a U.S. expert has said, noting Pyongyang has already been "burnt" by Trump.
Ralph Cossa, president emeritus at the Pacific Forum, made the forecast in a recent piece for The National Interest, an international affairs magazine, suspecting Pyongyang will be more interested in "what kind of damage a second Trump administration will do to relations between South Korea and the United States.
"Having been burnt once or twice already by Trump, Kim Jong-un is not going to be eager to try again. In truth, Kim Jong-un has already gotten what he most wanted from Trump: international legitimacy," Cossa wrote.
"Why risk getting the rug pulled out from under him again, just for another photo op? Kim certainly understands the prospects of getting unrestricted aid from Trump at this point are slim to none," he added.
With Russia now supporting North Korea, Kim has made it clear he is no longer interested in dialogue with either Washington, Seoul or Tokyo, Cossa noted.
"A change in administration in Washington is not likely to change this," he said.
His remarks came amid speculation that Trump could consider another round of personal diplomacy with Kim, which led to three in-person meetings with the North Korean leader during his presidency, including their first-ever summit in Singapore in 2018.
Cossa pointed out that chances are "pretty slim" that Beijing or Moscow would pressure Kim to resume negotiations with Washington or Seoul.
"Both see the value in keeping the North Korean threat alive, as one struggles with Ukraine and the other continues to apply pressure on Taiwan," he said.
He also noted that there is little chance that South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will change his "get-tough" policy toward the North.
"I suspect that Pyongyang (and Beijing and Moscow) will be more interested in seeing what kind of damage a second Trump administration will do to U.S.-ROK relations than how it will impact U.S.-DPRK relations," he said.
The ROK and DPRK stand for the official names of South Korea and North Korea, the Republic of Korea and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, respectively. (Yonhap)